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Leading options · 8 ranked from 16 screened

Prediction Markets

Prediction markets evaluated across resolution integrity, regulatory access, liquidity where you trade, and total trading cost.

#1 of 8 · published ranking
Kalshi
83ChainChoice Score
Why it leads
Best in the pool on resolution and access
Cost
$210 your cost/yr · Your monthly volume: $1k
No provider can pay for a position in this table. The code that computes this order cannot read which links earn us a commission, and every build proves it. Every score below rebuilds from the published criteria.Ranking 2026.08 · 4 criteria · 8 products · same inputs, same order
Personal comparison

What prediction markets cost you

Your inputs update the cost column. The independent ranking stays fixed.

Trading spread on your volume for a year. Excludes network gas and any withdrawal fee.

RankProviderBest fitScoreYour cost
1
KalshiCFTC-regulated US exchange, largest ven...Top ranked
CFTC-regulated US exchange, largest venue by volume, resolved centrally by the…Trade-off: Fully custodial and centrally resolved. Kalshi determines outcomes itself under its o...
83score
your cost/yr
Check availability for your countryVisit Kalshi · cftc.gov

Commission: This provider pays ChainChoice nothing for this link. Disclosure

Crypto products are high risk. Check the provider is authorised where you live before you deposit.

2
PolymarketLargest onchain venue and the deepest b...
Largest onchain venue and the deepest book outside Kalshi - with the category's…Trade-off: You are not buying a resolution guarantee; you are buying exposure to a token-weighte...
81score
-Not published
Check availability for your countryVisit Polymarket · docs.polymarket.com

Commission: This provider pays ChainChoice nothing for this link. Disclosure

Crypto products are high risk. Check the provider is authorised where you live before you deposit.

3
Predict.funBNB Chain challenger, #3 by volume - UM...
BNB Chain challenger, #3 by volume - UMA oracle risk plus a Venus lending…Trade-off: Two stacked dependencies rather than one. First, identical UMA adjudication exposure...
69score
your cost/yr
Check availability for your countryVisit Predict.fun · docs.predict.fun

Commission: This provider pays ChainChoice nothing for this link. Disclosure

Crypto products are high risk. Check the provider is authorised where you live before you deposit.

4
SX BetLongest-running onchain P2P sports exch...
Longest-running onchain P2P sports exchange - a 1% taker fee on net profit,…Trade-off: Concentration and opacity rather than solvency. Depth exists in mainstream sports lin...
65score
Lowest at your inputs
Check availability for your countryVisit SX Bet · docs.sx.bet

Commission: This provider pays ChainChoice nothing for this link. Disclosure

Crypto products are high risk. Check the provider is authorised where you live before you deposit.

5
Limitless ExchangeBase-native short-duration markets - Py...
Base-native short-duration markets - Pyth-automated on crypto, hand-resolved by…Trade-off: Discretionary centralised resolution applied to exactly the market types where resolu...
64score
your cost/yr
Check availability for your countryVisit Limitless Exchange · docs.limitless.exchange

Commission: This provider pays ChainChoice nothing for this link. Disclosure

Crypto products are high risk. Check the provider is authorised where you live before you deposit.

6
Myriad MarketsTeam-resolved markets, some on Chainlin...
Team-resolved markets, some on Chainlink feeds, attached to a book that has almost no...Trade-off: Liquidity and resolution: the Myriad team resolves markets under its Market Rules, an...
56score
your cost/yr
Check availability for your countryVisit Myriad Markets · docs.myriad.markets

Commission: This provider pays ChainChoice nothing for this link. Disclosure

Crypto products are high risk. Check the provider is authorised where you live before you deposit.

2 more assessed and ranked below — none of them hidden for commercial reasons.
Ranking blindCommercial terms excludedDated primary sourcesCrypto products are high risk. Check the provider is authorised where you live before you deposit.

Ranked on 4 published criteria weighted 32/26/24/18, which set goal alignment — 30 of the 86 points. The rest: regional access 20, evidence depth 18, ease of use 10, institutional trust 8. Profile match is shown in breakdowns but carries no weight.

Audit
Infrastructure
Methodology
2026.09.15
published 2026-09-16
Providers tracked
980+
across 119 categories
Last verified
2026-09-14
newest dated pricing or sentiment read
Named on the roster
2 people
managing directors · 6 automated processes
Decision guide

What matters most before choosing in this category

The best prediction market depends first on whether you can legally trade there, and then on who resolves a contested outcome. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange with narrower listed markets; Polymarket, Limitless, SX Bet and Myriad are open venues with broader coverage and their own dispute mechanics. We rank on resolution integrity and access before liquidity and cost, because a venue can run flawlessly and still take a correct position to zero by resolving against you — and a market you cannot legally reach is not a market at all. Platform volume is shown as context, never scored.

What matters most before choosing in this category

The best prediction market depends first on whether you can legally trade there, and then on who resolves a contested outcome. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange with narrower listed markets; Polymarket, Limitless, SX Bet and Myriad are open venues with broader coverage and their own dispute mechanics. We rank on resolution integrity and access before liquidity and cost, because a venue can run flawlessly and still take a correct position to zero by resolving against you — and a market you cannot legally reach is not a market at all. Platform volume is shown as context, never scored.

Can you legally trade on this venue from where you live — and have you checked, rather than assumed?
Where are you trading from, and does that jurisdiction leave the venue open to you?
Do you want a regulated venue with narrower markets, or an open one with broader coverage and a dispute process?
Current editor lead

Expert review and scoring weights

KalshiData checked Sep 2026
CFTC-regulated US exchange, largest venue by volume, resolved centrally by the exchange itself with no…

Three consumer-platform failures in five months, all during peak-demand events, all re-verified against the cited reporting. Aug 2025: 'a separate outage in August 2025 affected the full platform, including the exchange itself.' Oct 2025: 'roughly half of Kalshi's users were unable to access the app or website during Saturday college football games' while the API kept serving institutional traders and automated market makers - retail was locked out, algos were not. 8-9 Feb 2026 (Super Bowl): the payment rail failed from around 5pm and deposits were still pending in the fourth quarter; funds were debited from… Fully custodial and centrally resolved. Kalshi determines outcomes itself under its own rulebook - there is no external oracle, no public dispute market and no bond; the only user path documented is a settlement request, which 'our markets team will thoroughly review', and its settlement docs concede that some markets need 'manual review'. You are trusting one US corporate exchange's judgement with no adversarial check.

Best forCFTC-regulated US exchange, largest venue by volume, resolved centrally by the…
Main tradeoffFully custodial and centrally resolved. Kalshi determines outcomes itself under its own rulebook - there is no external oracle, no public dispute…
Verify before signupKYC-mandatory, fully custodial - Kalshi holds your cash. Correction to a common claim: Kalshi is NOT fiat-only.
Methodology

How this category is reviewed

Reviewed on resolution integrity, regulatory access, liquidity where you trade, and total trading cost.

The order on this page is the published ranking for this category. Every criterion, weight and source behind it is on the methodology page.
Frequently asked

Questions people ask before choosing prediction markets

What is the safest prediction market?
Safety on a prediction market comes mostly from resolution, not from uptime. A venue can run flawlessly and still take a correct position to zero by resolving a contested outcome against you, so what is scored is who resolves, on what evidence, and what the dispute record actually shows.
Why is platform volume not in the ranking?
Platform volume measures how much attention a venue attracts, not whether it resolves fairly or whether you can legally use it. It is also concentrated: aggregate volume dominated by two political markets says nothing about depth in the market you actually want to trade. It is shown as a fact and never scored.
Who decides the outcome when a market is contested?
It varies, which is why resolution integrity is weighted highest at 32%. Some venues resolve against a named data source, some run a token-weighted dispute game, and some reserve the final call for themselves. Resolution is the only mechanism that can take a correct position and pay you nothing, so the dispute record matters more than the fee.
Why does regulatory access carry so much weight?
Because a market you cannot legally reach is not a market, however deep it is. Access is weighted at 26% for that reason: the ranking answers what this reader can actually trade on, not which venue is largest in the abstract.
REVIEWEDAugust–September 2026METHOD4 criteriaCATEGORYprediction_markets
Not financial advice · For informational purposes only · Always do your own research
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